2025-11-14 13:00
by
nlpkak
Looking back at the 2017 NBA Finals, it still feels like one of those rare championship series where the outcome seemed almost inevitable from the start. I remember sitting with fellow analysts months before the playoffs began, running simulations and crunching numbers, and nearly every model pointed toward a Golden State Warriors coronation. The partnership between Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant had finally clicked into its devastating final form—years later, that partnership is finally a go, and what we witnessed was basketball perfection meeting statistical probability head-on.
When we break down the championship odds from that season, the numbers tell a fascinating story. Golden State entered the playoffs with championship odds hovering around -200 at most major sportsbooks, which in plain English translates to roughly a 67% implied probability of winning it all. That’s an astonishing figure when you consider the Cleveland Cavaliers, their eventual opponents, were sitting at about +350, or around a 22% chance. The gap wasn’t just wide—it felt like a chasm. I recall telling colleagues that unless LeBron James pulled off something superhuman, the Warriors were going to steamroll their way to the title. And honestly, that’s exactly what happened.
What made Golden State’s odds so compelling wasn’t just their star power—it was the system. Steve Kerr had built an offensive machine that blended unselfish ball movement with historically great shooting. The Warriors finished the regular season with a net rating of +11.6, one of the highest ever recorded. They had four All-Stars in their prime, and their bench, while sometimes overlooked, was perfectly suited to their style. I remember watching them dismantle opponents with such ease that it almost felt unfair. From my perspective, their odds weren’t just favorable—they were deserved.
On the other side, Cleveland’s path to the Finals was impressive but fraught with vulnerabilities. LeBron was, as always, phenomenal, but their defense ranked in the bottom third of the league during the regular season. Kyrie Irving provided spectacular offense, but the supporting cast often looked inconsistent. When I reviewed their playoff run, it was clear they relied heavily on individual brilliance rather than systemic cohesion. Their odds reflected that reality—they were a talented team facing a historically great one.
The actual Finals played out almost exactly as the odds suggested. Golden State won the series 4-1, and aside from Game 4 where Cleveland set an NBA record for three-pointers in a Finals game, the Warriors controlled nearly every meaningful stretch. I’ve rarely seen a series where pre-series analytics and on-court results aligned so perfectly. Durant averaged 35.2 points on 55% shooting, Curry orchestrated the offense masterfully, and the Warriors’ defense locked in when it mattered most. Looking back, I’m not sure any team in recent memory had a better chance to win a title than the 2017 Warriors did.
Some critics argued that the odds were too skewed, that they didn’t account for the unpredictability of basketball. But from where I sit, the models got it right. Golden State’s roster construction, coaching, and execution were simply on another level. Even now, when I revisit those odds and the games themselves, I’m struck by how clearly the better team won. It wasn’t just about having the best players—it was about having the best team, and the odds reflected that distinction beautifully.
In the end, the 2017 NBA Finals serve as a textbook case for how championship odds can capture both talent and context. The Warriors didn’t just have the best odds—they had the best team, and they proved it. For analysts and fans alike, it was a reminder that while upsets make for great stories, sometimes the most likely outcome is also the most inevitable one. And years later, reflecting on that partnership between Curry and Durant finally hitting its stride, it’s clear why those odds were so heavily in Golden State’s favor. They weren’t just favorites—they were a basketball force that defined an era.
