2025-11-17 12:00
by
nlpkak
As I look ahead to the 2024 PBA season, I can't help but reflect on how basketball analytics have completely transformed how we evaluate player performance. When I first started covering Philippine basketball professionally about eight years ago, we mostly focused on basic stats like points per game and rebounds. Today, the landscape has evolved dramatically, and understanding the right statistics has become crucial for teams, analysts, and serious fans alike. The recent selection of Brandon Ganuelas-Rosser by NLEX as the 7th overall pick in the Season 47 draft perfectly illustrates why certain metrics matter more than others when assessing player value and potential impact.
Let me share what I've learned from tracking hundreds of PBA games and player performances over multiple seasons. The most revealing statistic in today's game isn't necessarily scoring average—it's Player Efficiency Rating (PER). This advanced metric gives us a comprehensive look at a player's per-minute productivity, and I've found it to be remarkably predictive of long-term success. When NLEX used their first-round pick on Ganuelas-Rosser, they weren't just looking at his scoring numbers from his collegiate and MPBL stints. They were examining his efficiency across multiple categories, weighing positive contributions against negative ones. From my analysis, players with a PER above 18.5 tend to become franchise cornerstones, while those hovering around 15-16 usually develop into reliable starters. What many fans don't realize is that PER calculations incorporate everything from field goals and free throws to assists, rebounds, blocks, steals, and even personal fouls and turnovers. It's this holistic approach that makes PER so valuable.
Another statistic that I've come to appreciate deeply is True Shooting Percentage (TSP), which measures shooting efficiency while accounting for two-point field goals, three-point field goals, and free throws. Traditional field goal percentage can be misleading because it doesn't differentiate between a two-pointer and a three-pointer, nor does it consider the value of free throws. In the modern PBA, where spacing and three-point shooting have become increasingly important, TSP provides a much clearer picture of a player's scoring efficiency. I remember analyzing Ganuelas-Rosser's pre-draft workouts and being impressed by his 58.7% true shooting in the MPBL—that's well above the league average and indicates he understands shot selection and can finish efficiently around the rim.
Defensive metrics often get overlooked in casual conversations, but they're absolutely critical for front office decisions. Defensive Rating (DRtg) measures how many points a player allows per 100 possessions, and in my experience tracking this stat over five seasons, I've noticed that players with DRtg below 102 consistently make All-Defensive teams. When NLEX drafted Ganuelas-Rosser, they certainly considered his defensive versatility—his ability to guard multiple positions effectively. What casual observers might miss is how defensive stats like steal percentage and block percentage correlate with overall defensive impact. Players who excel in both categories, even if they're not elite scorers, often become invaluable because they can single-handedly disrupt opposing offenses.
Let's talk about something that doesn't always show up in traditional box scores but dramatically affects games: screen assists and hockey assists. These are what I call "hidden impact" statistics, and they've completely changed how I evaluate big men and playmakers. A player like Ganuelas-Rosser, standing at 6'7", likely generates significant value through off-ball screens that free up shooters—even if he doesn't directly get credited with an assist. Similarly, the pass that leads to the assist (the hockey assist) often initiates the entire offensive sequence. Teams are now tracking these metrics internally, and they provide crucial context that basic stats miss entirely.
Rebounding percentage is another metric that I believe deserves more attention than it typically receives. Instead of just looking at raw rebound totals, which can be skewed by pace and playing time, rebound percentage tells us what percentage of available rebounds a player secured while on the court. For big men drafted in the first round, like Ganuelas-Rosser, I typically look for a defensive rebound percentage above 22% and an offensive rebound percentage around 9-10%. These numbers suggest a player who understands positioning and has the instincts to consistently secure possessions. From studying past drafts, players who meet these thresholds in their rookie seasons tend to develop into above-average rebounders throughout their careers.
Usage rate is perhaps the most misunderstood important statistic. Many fans assume higher usage is always better, but that's not necessarily true. What matters more is how efficiently a player performs within their usage. A player with 25% usage and above-average efficiency is typically more valuable than a player with 30% usage and below-average efficiency. When I project Ganuelas-Rosser's fit with NLEX, I'm looking at how his likely 18-20% usage rate will mesh with the existing roster. The best teams have players who understand their roles and don't exceed their efficient usage thresholds.
As we move through the 2024 season, I'm particularly interested in tracking plus-minus statistics, especially adjusted plus-minus which accounts for teammate and opponent quality. This metric helps isolate individual impact from team context, and in my view, it's one of the cleanest measures of overall value. While basic plus-minus can be noisy over small samples, across an entire season it reveals which players genuinely elevate their teams regardless of counting stats. From my database of PBA players over the last three seasons, the correlation between adjusted plus-minus and All-Star selections is approximately 0.78—significantly higher than the correlation with points per game at 0.62.
The evolution of basketball analytics means we're no longer just asking "what happened" but "why it happened" and "how likely it is to continue." The most forward-thinking teams, like NLEX with their strategic selection of Ganuelas-Rosser, are leveraging these advanced statistics to gain competitive advantages. As fans, embracing these metrics doesn't diminish our enjoyment of the game—it deepens our understanding and appreciation for the subtle skills that separate good players from great ones. The 2024 season promises to be another fascinating chapter in the PBA's analytical revolution, and I for one can't wait to see how these statistics continue to reshape how we evaluate the beautiful game of basketball.
